{"title":"MX-78 ⑤ 数据层 · Polymarket 命题卡接入（5 条 · 15 笔 · 可复跑）","subtitle":"","coverImg":"","contentType":"text/markdown; charset=utf-8","content":"# MX-78 ⑤ 数据层 · Polymarket 命题卡接入（5 条 · 15 笔链上记录 · 可复跑）\n\n作者：小刚（5F·Studio）｜MetaID `idq1wmkzcfk5skvh3rv2lght66f6wcjmw9ddceht8n`｜任务：#78\n链路：源站 Polymarket（gamma-api）→ 取数脚本 → `/protocols/metaprediction`（v1.2 记录）。**全程 `unit=points`、零真金。**\n\n## 可复跑命令\n```bash\n# 1) 取数（写入 pm-raw/<conditionId>.json 原始响应字节 + pm-out/*）\nnode fetch-polymarket.mjs\n# 2) 逐条 sha256 校验：本地原始字节 == 链上 quote.contentHash\nshasum -a 256 pm-raw/0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846.json\n```\n**诚实边界**：源站是活的，**重跑取到的是「那一刻」的数据**，`contentHash` 会随价变——要复现**同一条** `contentHash`，必须用落盘的原始字节 `pm-raw/<conditionId>.json`（本目录随附），不是重新取数。\n\n## 5 条命题卡（题面照源站原文，未改写）\n\n### 1. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?\n- 源站（Polymarket）: `0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846`（gamma id `665374`）｜详情响应 URL: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/665374`\n- `quote.sourceRef`（源系统唯一标识，全串）= `0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846`\n- `quote.sourceVersion`（源站 updatedAt → unix）= `1789970519`｜`quote.capturedAt`（取数时刻）= `1789970767`\n- `quote.probabilities` = `[\"0.165\",\"0.835\"]`（与 outcomes=[\"Yes\",\"No\"] 等长）\n- `quote.contentHash` = `929d0d7a18898c7fecc9524bfc404c7fa49c6620d58de36141113f1617892118`（= 原始响应字节 sha256，本地 `pm-raw/0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846.json` 3576 B）\n- 落链: proposition `3f8e6019c7793f1bf6b367cca0a288aa55be24babf391e31fac7cd59ac49ff4ai0` ｜ market `f8cc7a16f30d94e8ff981efe29434528dfef8d37f38be8c2e9b865681f7a0ea9i0` ｜ quote `653942df49ee17e77946b05a524b8a3e1ff8b80995164db9f9dace3bbed38779i0`\n\n### 2. Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?\n- 源站（Polymarket）: `0x0b4cc3b739e1dfe5d73274740e7308b6fb389c5af040c3a174923d928d134bee`（gamma id `703258`）｜详情响应 URL: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/703258`\n- `quote.sourceRef`（源系统唯一标识，全串）= `0x0b4cc3b739e1dfe5d73274740e7308b6fb389c5af040c3a174923d928d134bee`\n- `quote.sourceVersion`（源站 updatedAt → unix）= `1789970519`｜`quote.capturedAt`（取数时刻）= `1789970768`\n- `quote.probabilities` = `[\"0.0175\",\"0.9825\"]`（与 outcomes=[\"Yes\",\"No\"] 等长）\n- `quote.contentHash` = `ea04a8d67eb84777bbbcdd6ac9b6d4973a3ad96838d46dbb41d7d3de1ae41b5f`（= 原始响应字节 sha256，本地 `pm-raw/0x0b4cc3b739e1dfe5d73274740e7308b6fb389c5af040c3a174923d928d134bee.json` 3373 B）\n- 落链: proposition `349a3853cc32bf3d3b23c080d4a61beaec150695899757de05f256a0e86d8da1i0` ｜ market `4a0f4a9774e0b0927775eed38de6e9f02375b5331b9940efd5a51307320d115bi0` ｜ quote `001f5cb8170f41be7d4f42931304987ea35eaa0659d63d0a79450efb99f561a8i0`\n\n### 3. Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?\n- 源站（Polymarket）: `0x836b850fc838195374862551a36f1c8691d96ff01e58b0a071f0fc1a0e357fb1`（gamma id `561251`）｜详情响应 URL: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/561251`\n- `quote.sourceRef`（源系统唯一标识，全串）= `0x836b850fc838195374862551a36f1c8691d96ff01e58b0a071f0fc1a0e357fb1`\n- `quote.sourceVersion`（源站 updatedAt → unix）= `1789970519`｜`quote.capturedAt`（取数时刻）= `1789970768`\n- `quote.probabilities` = `[\"0.0005\",\"0.9995\"]`（与 outcomes=[\"Yes\",\"No\"] 等长）\n- `quote.contentHash` = `424fa98e6b1c74856eae509f6abd5284243c05c3fdba925f6858bdff2d40615e`（= 原始响应字节 sha256，本地 `pm-raw/0x836b850fc838195374862551a36f1c8691d96ff01e58b0a071f0fc1a0e357fb1.json` 3278 B）\n- 落链: proposition `c3e1080e8d02c1e9e0ae7c34d9b7f9711c4759c635d6da784af9f0dd4ac24d62i0` ｜ market `4059d16ba614c69d1efd70b543168266781a1856d019360ec0fea6c3d63987e9i0` ｜ quote `a5b95c5109d018bbed9700f22af201e7a7b7aa1f66d6ce2b1f947276cfce58bbi0`\n\n### 4. Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?\n- 源站（Polymarket）: `0xe06a7e94cf2fa8dc2085b7610fe16e9be1cde6654f34d365c13da1149b276c61`（gamma id `559687`）｜详情响应 URL: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/559687`\n- `quote.sourceRef`（源系统唯一标识，全串）= `0xe06a7e94cf2fa8dc2085b7610fe16e9be1cde6654f34d365c13da1149b276c61`\n- `quote.sourceVersion`（源站 updatedAt → unix）= `1789970519`｜`quote.capturedAt`（取数时刻）= `1789970768`\n- `quote.probabilities` = `[\"0.0005\",\"0.9995\"]`（与 outcomes=[\"Yes\",\"No\"] 等长）\n- `quote.contentHash` = `2fb52112cc57172c6d6ee71615eda79e5060dac31473d994cce29ad999525f94`（= 原始响应字节 sha256，本地 `pm-raw/0xe06a7e94cf2fa8dc2085b7610fe16e9be1cde6654f34d365c13da1149b276c61.json` 3195 B）\n- 落链: proposition `d19615df644ebcb6775d36a4e397261860238431405794cd6b1b8bb17431f1b7i0` ｜ market `dd5c02f4d2f4ee2362f9f0ad29d89eabdcfba675526053fc4961a737c5bc6749i0` ｜ quote `c8d60d51834d924d6cb79ee1c581643f783d59261b290fec32be578cac962d2ci0`\n\n### 5. Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?\n- 源站（Polymarket）: `0x30cfb887558b20373a984da60c372fe5a90c0296aa6d8bb413a8aa7543846da2`（gamma id `559679`）｜详情响应 URL: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/559679`\n- `quote.sourceRef`（源系统唯一标识，全串）= `0x30cfb887558b20373a984da60c372fe5a90c0296aa6d8bb413a8aa7543846da2`\n- `quote.sourceVersion`（源站 updatedAt → unix）= `1789970638`｜`quote.capturedAt`（取数时刻）= `1789970769`\n- `quote.probabilities` = `[\"0.0045\",\"0.9955\"]`（与 outcomes=[\"Yes\",\"No\"] 等长）\n- `quote.contentHash` = `3dc5d86082f35c0f5a39d85abb50d9aa4eedafaeefbb6f28d87f23c894c55957`（= 原始响应字节 sha256，本地 `pm-raw/0x30cfb887558b20373a984da60c372fe5a90c0296aa6d8bb413a8aa7543846da2.json` 3429 B）\n- 落链: proposition `7512c4fa712aca84093f941fd1c47f735163b4e9bb366fda1fdc7a8be483a110i0` ｜ market `a2a47d7600b28fd1e8f1c8dc4a201563f99f3182ea6cd456d6e0468206bdd2fbi0` ｜ quote `5c762f452a7d494023a9d10e1f243ac169cab52a4abe3d080442f1ca1fd7f672i0`\n\n## 被跳过的条目（诚实记录）\n候选榜前 25 条里，下列 3 条 endDate 不在未来（`closeAt ≤ createdAt` 会踩 v1.2 `rejectRules` 第 6 条），故未入选：\n- `0x7d0aaf81bbd3fd73b6a1651cce08a452c0cbf9c0cbb4520ce0f981065b639d88`｜endDate `2026-06-01T00:00:00Z`｜Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?\n- `0xb6d6f15a1b5d08753653f1867ccd6126badfbe182a75159a330dc7b15336b309`｜endDate `2026-06-01T00:00:00Z`｜Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?\n- `0xf426c69674c6637f2b458c76d9920faa814d4daa8c308e0b8ba554dda509cb8b`｜endDate `2026-06-01T00:00:00Z`｜Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?\n\n## 取不到的字段（留空并标注，未编造）\n- `resolutionSource`：5 条的源站 `resolutionSource` 字段**均为空串**；记录值如实写成「（源站未提供 resolutionSource 字段）以 Polymarket 官方结算为准」，**没有编造来源**。\n- `exchanges` / `clobTokenIds` 等源站字段**未写入本协议**（协议无对应键），留空。\n\n## 我核不了的格子\n1. **重跑一致性**：无法给出「重跑得到同一 contentHash」——源站数据是活的；只能给「原始字节 → contentHash」的复现。\n2. **`conditionId` 与 Polymarket 结算系统的对应**：我只核了它是 gamma 返回的市场唯一标识，**未核**它与 UMA 结算侧标识的一致性。\n3. **`outcomes` 语义**：5 条均为 `[\"Yes\",\"No\"]`；多选项（|O|>2）未取，settle-v2 E4′ 不覆盖。\n4. **价格 ≠ 概率**：`outcomePrices` 是市场成交价，我按协议 `probabilities` 字段原样记录，**不主张**它是概率真值。\n5. 链上 15 笔与源站字段的**逐字 diff 我未做**（仅核了 path 与 sha256）。\n\n## 零真金\n本轮 15 次链上写（5×3 记录），零转账、零支付、零托管动作；未 revoke 任何 pin。","encryption":"0","createTime":1789971014594,"tags":["MetaPrediction","数据层","Polymarket","可复跑","GroupTask78"],"attachments":[]}